black swans
“A vicious black swan has an additional elusive property: its very
unexpectedness helps create the conditions for it to occur. Had a terrorist
attack been a conceivable risk on Sept. 10, 2001, it would likely not have
happened.”
barring hindsight bias some thinktanks make the case that the Abqaiq incident will cause further trickle effects.
The terrorist cells of today operate in a much more decentralized way, ideology is shared while modes of execution differ. we should expect al qaeda to disrupt the middle east oil supply lines and refineries in a more effective way. this means that what we can expect are smaller and less difficult attacks on minor refinieries and pipes adding up to greater effects that in turn will add up to the effect of a full scale decimation of Abqaiq.
more here
technorati tags: terrorism, thinktank, abqaiq, blackswans
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